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News » Carpenter is huge question as Cards prepare for camp


Carpenter is huge question as Cards prepare for camp


Carpenter is huge question as Cards prepare for camp
Spring-training camps are about to open.

It's nearly reporting day for pitchers, catchers and optimists.

It's been a vociferous offseason in St. Louis, at least among the extroverted fans who post comments on the STLtoday.com forums or who call my radio show (thank you).

The list of grievances:

- General manager John Mozeliak didn't live up to his pledge of an "aggressive" offseason.

- Chairman Bill DeWitt went cheap and didn't open enough payroll space.

- Manager Tony La Russa's stated No. 1 priority - an established closer - went unfilled. As did his desire for an "impact bat."

- The team signed three lefthanded relievers, but none was an A-list talent.

- Management didn't reinforce a vulnerable rotation by adding another starter.

So after our winter of discontent, what do we make of the 2009 Cardinals?

The combination of a declining economy and growing fan resentment will probably slow the procession of customers entering Busch Stadium. The team is privately anticipating a drop of around 400,000 in home attendance this season.

Over the Baseball fields at Roger Dean Stadium in Jupiter, Fla. the sky is a little overcast, but not falling.

There are many things to like about the Cardinals as they walk through those clubhouse doors.

There's Albert Pujols, the reigning National League MVP. And Yadier Molina, the best defensive catcher in the majors.

There's a returning Silver Slugger corner outfielder in Ryan Ludwick. And there's quite a crowd out there, with more good players than openings. The St. Louis outfield had the best combined onbase-slugging percentage in the NL last season, and five-tool prospect Colby Rasmus joins the platoon.

Ludwick, Rick Ankiel, Skip Schumaker, Rasmus, a healthy Chris Duncan, Joe Mather and Brian Barton will be hustling for the largest share of regular-season at-bats, and intense competition usually leads to intense play. It's possible that Mozeliak can tap into this surplus and flip an outfielder in a deal for pitching. We'll see.

This will be a hungry, edgy team. I like the fact that second baseman Adam Kennedy, new shortstop Khalil Greene, third baseman Troy Glaus and Ankiel are entering the final years of contracts. The walk year tends to put an extra hop in the step of ballplayers. Others, including Ludwick, are positioning themselves for bigger arbitration payouts next winter.

There's an opening at third base until Glaus returns from shoulder surgery, and prospect David Freese will get a legitimate shot at the position. That can be a good thing. As we saw last season, the presence of younger, ascending players can be an invigorating element to the team.

The lineup should be fine. The infield depth is lacking, but La Russa always seems to cultivate someone for the role who proceeds to outperform expectations. (See: Marlon Anderson, Abraham Nunez, Aaron Miles or Scott Spiezio.) I'm not as worried about this area as some of you are. La Russa is resourceful, and he has a solid history of developing a bench.

As usual, the Cardinals' status as a postseason contender will probably come down to pitching.

The rotation has an asterisk, at least until we learn more about Chris Carpenter's health and long-term viability.

The bullpen doesn't have a fixture at closer, and the inability to preserve leads was the team's most damaging problem in 2008.

The Cardinals have a pair of potential nasty closers in Chris Perez and Jason Motte. Perez throws 97 mph, and Motte is even faster. That kind of velocity is hard to find, and La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan have to go with it. It's not as if they were handed a couple of junkballers; Perez and Motte have special arms. And they're an example of why the Cardinals pumped so much money into player development. The goal is to find potential gems and fit them onto the big club.

And if it's a tad early for Perez and Motte, so be it. This isn't the worst situation to be in. Perez or Motte are preferable to a broken-down closer, a rehabbing closer, or a veteran reliever who can't handle the pressure of closing. Before Perez was promoted on Aug. 6, the Cardinals had saved games at a rate of 52.6 percent. The save rate was 75 percent over the remainder of the season.

As for the rotation, consider: Last season the Cardinals finished a respectable sixth in the NL in starting-pitching ERA, and that's with Carpenter and Adam Wainwright combining to make only 23 starts.

The Cardinals made no effort to re-sign Braden Looper, who gave them 199 sturdy innings last season. So the rotation is thinner than I'd like, and if Carpenter heads to the disabled list for another extended stay, then this team is in serious trouble. That's why I continue to be disappointed by the Cardinals' decision to bypass a free-agent market that offered reasonable one-year buys.

If Carpenter and Wainwright can crank out a combined 60, 65 starts, this rotation should be more than adequate. A physically sound top four of Wainwright, Carpenter, Kyle Lohse and Todd Wellemeyer looks attractive to me.

I don't like to pin the entire fate of the rotation on one guy, Carpenter. But clearly his status is the No. 1 determining factor in the Cardinals' season. And if Carpenter blows up again, causing a meltdown of the rotation, Mozeliak and DeWitt will feel the heat.


Author:Fox Sports
Author's Website:http://www.foxsports.com
Added: February 9, 2009

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